Bellwether interactive charts

25 years of UK companies’ total marketing spend intentions and financial confidence levels

Total marketing spend revisions (% net balance) / Financial prospects (% net balance)

Data from the IPA Bellwether Report illustrates the overall marketing spend revisions and financial confidence levels of UK companies over the past 25 years (2000 to 2025).

The lowest and highest of Bellwether

• The Bellwether nadir (lowest reading) was recorded in Q2 2020 when a net balance of -50.7% of UK companies revised their marketing spend down. This coincided with the first Covid-19 lockdown.
• It took five quarters for UK companies to revise their spend upward again, following the Q2 2020 nadir.
• The second lowest reading recorded in the Bellwether history was -41.7% in Q4 2008. This coincided with the global financial crisis.
• The longest run of negative revisions to UK marketing spend intentions (below 0.0%) spanned 9 quarters. This was on the run up, during, and post financial crisis from Q4 2007-Q4 2009 inclusive.
• The longest run of positive upward revisions (above +0.0%) spanned 24 quarters from Q4 2012 to Q3 2018. Budget decision making started to fluctuate over subsequent quarters amid Brexit uncertainty from Q4 2018, and ahead of the pandemic.

25 years of UK companies’ marketing spend intentions by medium

Marketing spend revisions by medium (% net balance)

Data from the IPA Bellwether Report details the overall marketing spend revisions, by medium, of UK companies over the past 25 years (2000 to 2025).

Bellwether category evolution

Bellwether began by charting a handful of core categories and progressively expanded:

• In Q1 2000 Bellwether charted: Total Marketing Expenditure; Media; Direct Marketing; Other; Internet.
• In Q3 2000, Bellwether added Sales Promotion
• In Q4 2007, Bellwether added a category off Internet: of which internet search/SEO.
• In Q4 2012, Bellwether added Events, Market Research and PR.
• In Q1 2020, Bellwether broke down the main media section into: Video; Audio; Out-of-Home; Published brands; and Other online. This meant we could remove the main Internet category and the offshoot: Internet, of which search/SEO category.

Bellwether category definitions

Main media combined

Includes video (TV, cinema and/or online), audio (radio and any other audio), published brands (print or online), out-of-home and any other online advertising.

Main media separated out - Video, audio, published brands, out of home and other online advertising

Video (including any television, cinema or online video), audio (including any radio – live or online and any other audio such as podcasts), published brands (print or online), out of home and any other online advertising not already included

Direct marketing

Includes direct mail, email, telemarketing, door-to-door, catalogues and SMS.

Sales promotion

Includes in-store/POS promotions (BOGOF and similar), coupons, trade incentives, price discounting, loyalty cards and free gifts.

Events

Includes exhibitions, conferences, experiential, event marketing, event sponsorship, product sampling, corporate hospitality and entertainment.

Public relations

Includes reputation management, media relations, word-of-mouth, games and competitions, newsletters, and earned (not paid for) social media.

Market research

Includes qualitative and quantitative, brand tracking, and product development research.

Other

Includes any other paid-for marketing activity.